In 2045, the proportion of coal power in the total capacity of power sources will decrease to 9.6%, while renewable energy will gradually increase and reach more than 50%.

The Government Office has just announced the conclusion of Deputy Prime Minister Le Van Thanh at the conference with localities on electricity planning VIII. Accordingly, the conference agreed with the plan to review the electricity planning VIII of the Ministry of Industry and Trade submitted in early April.

That is, the plan for the total capacity of power sources by 2030 is about 146,000 MW (excluding rooftop solar power and co-generation power sources), a decrease of 35,000 MW compared to the plan submitted to the Government a year ago. Of which, there will be 37,467 MW of coal power, 23,900 MW of LNG power, 16,121 MW of onshore wind power, 7,000 MW of offshore wind power and 8,736 MW of large-scale solar power.

This scale fully meets the forecasted maximum load capacity of 93,300 MW by 2030, with a reasonable level of power reserve in the national and regional power systems.

The total installed power capacity in the national power system will increase to 217,596 MW in 2035 and reach about 401,556 MW in 2045.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the after-review plan will minimize coal power with the proportion gradually decreasing from 25.7% in 2030 and reducing to 9.6% in 2045.

Coal power projects under construction will continue to be deployed (about 10,842 MW), but do not balance co-generation coal power sources (total capacity 2,850 MW) into the planning and do not develop new coal power plants. .

BOT coal power plants assigned to foreign investors continue to be included in the planning to avoid legal consequences for the Government. But these projects will be closely monitored for implementation and negotiated for fuel conversion when possible.

Instead, the draft proposes to encourage the development of offshore wind power, stored hydroelectricity, biomass power, battery storage, as well as direct solar power (self-sufficiency, on-site consumption). for production facilities.

The LNG power source will be kept as it is until 2030, after this time will consider adding more LNG-powered background power to ensure the power system has a high ability to integrate renewable energy sources. This is for a reasonable geographical distribution to reduce cross-domain transmission.

LNG power sources will gradually switch to using hydrogen and completely switch to using hydrogen after 20 years of operation. After 10 years of operation, LNG gas power sources will start burning with hydrogen gas (from 20%).

In addition to fuel conversion, the option of power sources in this draft Power Master Plan VIII is calculated, encouraging the strong development of renewable energy sources (wind power, large-scale solar power, biomass power, etc.). ...). These power sources will gradually increase their proportion in the power source structure, nearly 24% in 2030, increasing to more than 50% in 2045.

For example, the share of wind power will increase from 10.8% to 15.8% of total installed capacity by 2030, of which offshore wind power alone is 4.8%.

"The new power source development plan is aimed at minimizing the development of coal power sources that cause greenhouse gas emissions. The CO2 emissions meet the commitment of the power industry in achieving CO2 neutralization by 2050. This option also increases the initiative in power supply, reducing dependence on imported fuel," the Ministry of Industry and Trade stated in the plan submitted to the Government.

Electricity transmission from the Central to the North (inter-regional) will increase gradually from 2030 onwards with the transmission output increasing from 21 billion kWh in 2035 to 40 billion kWh in 2040 and about 52 billion kWh in 2045. The Ministry of Industry and Trade thinks that it is necessary to consider building one-way transmission lines from the Central to the North and from the South to the North from after 2035.

However, with this proposal, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that the large investment capital, due to the need to add more renewable energy sources to replace coal power sources causing greenhouse gas emissions, to meet the end of Vietnam.

According to calculations, the plan after review has a total investment of nearly 141.6 billion USD, of which the power source is 127.45 billion USD and the transmission network is 14.14 billion USD. The total operating cost of the system by 2030 is 317.24 billion USD.

In addition, it is necessary to invest in an inter-regional transmission network and a coastal ultra-high-voltage transmission system. Some technologies have not been commercialized, such as those using hydrogen, green ammonia... so there are potential risks in planning implementation.

But after the review, the volume of 500 kV and 200 kV lines decreased by about 2,000 km compared to the plan submitted in March 2021, thereby reducing the need for investment capital in the electricity industry in the period of 2021 - 2030.

Besides, the crude reserve ratio of the system in 2045 is quite high, because the background power sources are no longer developed and instead wind power sources have a much lower operating time, about 105.9%. by 2045, leading to increased power investment costs.

To move towards net zero emissions by 2050, Vietnam has reduced about 13,500 MW of LNG capacity. These power sources will be replaced by onshore wind power plants, offshore wind power plants, solar power, flexible power sources using hydrogen and hydroelectric power sources, energy storage batteries (including energy storage batteries). wind power, solar power need to add about 47,000 MW).

According to calculations, by 2045 CO2 emissions will be 175 million tons, reducing nearly half compared to previous options. By 2050, CO2 emissions are reduced to about 42 million tons.

The post-reviewed planning plan has the proportion of renewable energy 29.5-36.2%, an increase of 4-5% compared to the level set out in Resolution 55. Renewable energy sources have increased to compensate for the problems. other sources of greenhouse gas emissions. It is expected to import about 22 billion m3 of LNG in 2030 and 11 billion m3 in 2045.

In the notice of conclusions of the Government Office, the Deputy Prime Minister assigned the Ministry of Industry and Trade to study and collect opinions of localities to complete the electricity planning VIII; complete the appraisal procedures before April 25 to submit to competent authorities for consideration and approval this April.